Vibecession tea leave reading

Economists say:

median forecasts for economic growth for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upward…still expect tariffs to be a drag on activity

&

look for the Federal Reserve to lower its interest rate target by another quarter of a percentage point by year-end, followed by three-quarters of a percentage-point reduction in 2026

&

[inflation] forecasted to be 3.0% from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2025…projected to cool to 2.5% by the end of 2026

People are spending, but don’t feel good about it

via NABE