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Is Krampus Coming To Town?

Consumers are weird this year. They’re willing to spend, they just don’t feel good about it.

Record back-to-school spending and falling consumer confidence sent seemingly contradictory signals this year, but together they point to the trend likely to define the holiday 2026 shopping season: Consumers remain willing to spend, yet increasingly focused on value, promotions and purchase timing.

Consumers’ mood rings aren’t helped by the fact that they’re just paying more, not getting more.

growth is heavily price-driven as inflation-adjusted spending per child declined and the bifurcation between income cohorts widened further.

As we head towards the holiday season, a steady diet of political attack ads is unlikely to make people feel better.

November 3/4 is a pressure release valve. Political ad spending plummets just as retail and holiday ads are ready to fill the void. The headline machine is still spinning, but the immediacy to act is gone.

No matter what, a portion of the population is getting a dopamine hit. How long that lasts (and how it impacts spending) might depend on the level of post-election WWE cage fight we’re subjected to.

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People are looking for alternatives to screen-based experiences.

Log off. Tune in. Show up.

You got to think more about how can you design a space that people will remember as opposed to one that they just want to be photographed in.

People are the reason.

The experiences I remember the most in retail are when a salesperson interacts with me.

Experience is the product.

The spectacle is a one-time draw. The circus travelled.

Spectacle gets people in the door.
Experience gets you remembered.

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If you’re not going to put any effort into creating the ad, why should anyone put any effort into clicking on it?

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Strategy is decision making. Foregoing optionality and choosing a path.

Strategic thinking doesn’t ignore the systems all around us, or the trade-offs that scarcity and competition require. Instead, it embraces them.

-Seth Godin

The trade-off is the strategy.

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Be unreasonable.

In every idea you pitch, find at least one aspect of it that you’ll defend to an unreasonable degree.

If you can’t find one, you need a new idea.

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Don’t double down on a concept that hasn’t proven itself by just adding another channel.

Channels amplify, they aren’t magic.

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Don’t confuse measurability with impact

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Counterpoint, the magic of the Venn diagram is in the overlap.

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For many, the goal is multi-hyphenate status.

The 8-in-1.
The everything app.
The operating system for x.
The only y you need for z.
At least an & in the solution list.

But sometimes being really, really, really ridiculously good at one thing is enough.

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Fed rate 📈
Consumer confidence 📉

Geopolitics and inflation get called out in both releases, a potent mix for negative emotional contagion.

Q4 will be interesting as the Fed reports:

While uncertainty remains elevated…domestic spending has been resilient

& the Conference Board says:

Consumers still anticipated their household incomes to rise, but less so compared to previous months

Add in midterm election season and I’d say we’re in the midst of a negative hype cycle.

Will shoppers go with austerity or retail therapy?