What happens when a vibecession meets an oil cliff?

We might be about to find out.

The world will be short some 350 million barrels of jet fuel and other refined crude products by the end of April

Compounding supply losses are pushing the world toward an “oil cliff” come April 19

average airfare over the past week was $465, up about 25% year-over-year and at least a seven-year high.

Elsewhere…

Amazon is adding a 3.5% fuel and logistics surcharge for third-party sellers in the U.S. and Canada.

“Elevated costs in fulfillment and logistics have increased the cost of operating across the industry,” Amazon wrote. “We have absorbed these increased costs so far. However, similar to other major carriers, when costs remain elevated, we implement temporary surcharges on our fulfillment fees to recover a portion of the actual cost increases we are experiencing.”

The gas pump is one of the clearest indicators for consumers. Shoppers only feel as rich as their bank account balance, inflation and rising fuel prices eat away at that faster than they’d like.

The summer travel market could be in for a big hit. And if / when shipping increases get passed through to shoppers, it could be an austere summer.

Memorial Day could be sluggish, or it could explode is shoppers enter deal seeking mode and wait for holiday discounts.

This is not a marketing plan…

Step 1: In development
Step 2: TBD
Step 3: We’ll know it when we see it
Step 4: Scale
Step 5: Profit

Compared to February, consumers are now more confident about current conditions. Or sentiment is down.

One story is the same across both surveys, expectations are trending down.

Trickle down economics does exist, when the trickle is starting with the slot machine spinning at the gas pump.

This diagram has become my labyrinth

ChatGPT ads are going well for OpenAI and soon more advertisers will have access.

Self-serve advertiser access is on track to launch in April

No word yet on if/how the premium minimums and pricing from the beta will apply to self-serve.