After April’s confidence number was revised up a point, it dipped back to start May (though just above April’s original number).
War-induced inflation is making the present moment a downer, but those surveyed are still optimistic about near-term business conditions.
References to prices and oil and gas increased in frequency for a second consecutive month, while mentions of war, geopolitics, and conflict remained elevated—likely signaling consumers’ underlying concerns about the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East on their wallets.
For reasons related to what Benedict Evans calls out here (which is very much worth a read),it’s time to develop a good understanding of Gell-Mann Amnesia.
Per Wiktionary:
The phenomenon of a person trusting newspapers for topics which that person is not knowledgeable about, despite recognizing the newspaper as being extremely inaccurate on certain topics which that person is knowledgeable about.
Our hype detectors need to be well tuned. Testing the new on what we know is a good foundational practice.
The BLS Shops the Produce Aisle 🍅 📈
Tomato prices have surged nearly 40% in April, reflecting broader inflation trends driven by rising fuel costs and impacting consumer wallets as summer approaches.
These four questions for management from Peter Drucker work just as well when you ask them about clients and customers:
- What does the other party want?
- What are its values?
- What are its goals?
- What does it consider results?
How would your clients or customers answer those questions?
How does your product or service align with those answers?
Signaling & Status 📍
What you convey to your customers.
What your customers use you to convey to others.
If you’re basing a decision / recommendation in reasoning that starts “everyone is doing…”
You’re wrong
The monoculture is dead
& your filter bubble is showing