Consumer confidence dipped in August. Thanks expectations!

Gas prices remain top of mind, while

Comments about war/conflict, food/groceries, trade, and jobs rose in August.

People are planning less discretionary spending on experiences. Things people still plan to spend on include:

  • auto
  • food out of home
  • furniture
  • internet
  • pet care
  • utilities

All in line with yesterday’s needs based buying post.

The Expectations index includes Q4. I expect early planning, flighted purchasing, and strong deal seeking during Black Friday and holiday sales.


Circana has a good post on recent consumer spending habits.

The era of value-seeking is being replaced by needs-based purchasing behavior.

Discretionary purchasing is pulling back
&

Growth is more concentrated among higher-income households and a narrowing set of categories, particularly those that deliver clear value, convenience, health benefits or affordable enjoyment.

4 vectors of tangible life improvement.


Is your goal spectacle or resonance?


Who’s listening?

men are five times more likely than women to regularly listen to sports podcasts, while women over-index in true crime, self-improvement, lifestyle, and wellness. News is the most popular genre overall, drawing 56% of men and 44% of women. Comedy acts as a genre equalizer, with similar consumption rates across genders.

via Sounds Profitable


Wallet pressure waits for no store. Walmart is feeling the squeeze.

The Bentonville, Arkansas-based retailer said heightened petrol prices are to blame for the slowdown in spending.

“When fuel prices increase and get above $4, perhaps there’s a psychological impact to that … consumers are making trade-offs,” CFO John David Rainey said on a call with analysts on Thursday.

As consumers spend less, each potential purchase needs to work harder to close the sale.

Q4 is looming


Ways To Think About AI: Listen to Benedict Evans Think About It

I find Benedict Evans typically has a measured view on things and he has the history to back it up from his telecom analyst days.

A rational conversation on where AI is actually going | Benedict Evans by Lenny Rachitsky

Benedict Evans on why AI is a 1997 internet moment, what everyone gets wrong about job loss, and where the real value may accrue

Read on Substack

The vibes aren’t bad, they’re mad.


What are you actually selling?

Every market has a low cost provider. They’re selling savings.

For everyone else, what else is being sold that fills the price gap?

A price is a story.

Are you telling the one you think you are?


How to juice quarters, Amazon vs Groupon: a cautionary tale

The contrast between short and long term vision.

On the Groupon spam cannon:

dude, that’s why this quarter is soft, because we did that last quarter.

And he’s like, I don’t care. Send the email. Fix it next quarter.

Harvesting short-term revenue numbers usually comes at the expense of long-term brand value and trust.

(start the video at the beginning for interesting facts about the economics of airports)