Shoppers spent plenty over Black Friday Cyber Monday this year, but there is a good chance they got less for those dollars.

Data from the National Retail Federation, Adobe, Mastercard, Salesforce, and Klarna shows plenty of activity, but higher prices could be a lump of coal in the shopping stocking.

As an analyst at TD Securities summed it up (bolding mine):

“We are seeing spending. We’re seeing a consumer that does have plenty of anxiety, that’s looking for great deals. That being said, the consumer still has money, wants joy.”

Consumers weren’t confident entering the holiday season, and they may not feel much better post-BFCM.

Maybe we need to be singing louder for all to hear. At least until more indicators drop later this week.

2025: the year where consumer spending (and AI investment) kept a vibecession from becoming a recession?

What The Data Says

Compared to 2024…

According to the National Retail Federation:

• Total shoppers up 3%
• In-store shoppers up 3%
• Online shoppers up 9%
• Average purchase amount up 7%

According to Salesforce:

• Completed purchases down 1%
• Average selling price up 7%

According to Klarna:

• Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) use up 45%

According to Adobe:

• All BNPL usage up 11%

Friday will give us the gift of Department of Commerce price index and University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index releases. This could be the nerd’s version of Santa’s Christmas cheer Clausometer gauge.