Planet Money is watching 3 indicators this year:

• Fed rate (splintering opinion on rate changes + a new (“yes man”) chair incoming)
• Electric rates (as affordability signal, rates up 7% compared to ~3% general inflation)
• Consumer spending (actions over words, we’re in a perma-vibecession + K-shaped economy)

The indicator of the year for 2025 was tariffs.

A.k.a. The economic soap opera of 2025.

Runners up:

• Consumer sentiment (see “vibecession”)
• CAPE ratio (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio): stocks are the most expensive they’ve ever been (compared to actual earnings) since just before the dotcom crash

The economy is standing in a hallway filled with closed doors. The movement of these indicators will determine which door it opens and walks through.