Meta
- brands reporting ad costs increasing 2-3x in the final weeks of the election
- surging TV ad costs, especially in swing states
- Search is no longer a platform, it’s a feature.
- Users want answers, not necessarily options.
- Google will not be replaced by a copycat. It will be chipped away at by new, novel alternatives and user dispersion across other channels. (and maybe by antitrust)
- Meta continues to reduce reliance on other companies wherever it can. The true realization of this will be a hardware platform, likely in the XR space.
- For brands / creators, having your content on the web—preferably on a platform you own—where it can be crawled is once again the path to relevance. (see: Gwern)
Election Campaign Spending Crowds Out Your Messaging
I’ve been harping about election campaign spending and its impact on marketing expectations this year for a bit now. So here’s an Election Day post running through it all again. Go vote!
2024 is projected to be a record-breaking year, surpassing $12 billion in political ad spend.
Seventy percent of that windfall will be spent after Labor Day
The Harris campaign has instead focused its digital spending on larger platforms like Google and Meta, where it has spent over $280mn this year. The vast amount of political spending on those platforms — already more than $1.5bn
For context, in the second half of October, political parties spent well over $2.5 million per day on YouTube. For Meta, it’s closer to $1 million per day.
Why won’t I shut up about this?
Because this level of spend puts intense pressure on the ad auctions and inventories of the utilized platforms. These are mostly net-new dollars flowing in at a rapid clip. For most brands this means higher ad costs and lower return reducing the efficiency of their spend.
Emarketer curated some reporting that includes:
Of course, the impact on marketing budgets is just the beginning.
This messaging overload overwhelms consumers, raises anxiety levels, and increases ad fatigue (who else is sick of all the election messaging you get bombarded with?). Which can all lead to a “pre-election slump” in consumer spending. Of course, this theoretical slump is not universal—I bet alcohol sales and the like are doing just fine.
But the bigger the price tag, the bigger the impact.
In times of uncertainty, people sit on their cash. They purchase discount or off-brand. They hold off on large luxury purchases made in celebration or confidence.
Election Day itself is no exception, more the final culmination of the building gravitational pull. A black hole that will collapse into itself tomorrow (right? please?!).
the election is fraying the nerves of the electorate, with nearly 70% of US adults calling it a significant source of stressYour marketing and messaging is like a fire, it needs a steady source of fuel to keep burning—to act as a beacon to the people it's for. The election is a vacuum, it sucks all the oxygen (and attention) out, making it all but impossible for that fire to keep burning without any changes.According to a recent Ipsos poll of roughly 1,000 US adults, 47% said election stress is causing them to spend less and save moreMeanwhile, the scale of an Election Day productivity slowdown could be staggering. An analysis by Challenger, Gray & Christmas estimates that productivity losses could reach $3.5 billion per hour
My team is probably tired of hearing me talk about this stuff, but context is important. Especially when talking to clients.
For context, in the second half of October, political parties spent well over $2.5 million per day on YouTube. For Meta, it’s closer to $1 million per day.
November 6 will be a pressure release. In more ways than one.
Some of your ads feel more expensive lately?
This might be why:
The Harris campaign has instead focused its digital spending on larger platforms like Google and Meta, where it has spent over $280mn this year. The vast amount of political spending on those platforms — already more than $1.5bn
I’m not sure how they’re defining “this year” since the Harris campaign technically started in July when Biden suspended his campaign.
$280 mil in 3 months?
Either way, a lot of money putting pressure on the auction algorithms.
via Financial Times
Meta is developing its AI search engine (and apparently has the “most-used AI assistant in the world”).
Now OpenAI is fully launching ChatGPT search
ChatGPT can now search the web in a much better way than before. You can get fast, timely answers with links to relevant web sources, which you would have previously needed to go to a search engine for. This blends the benefits of a natural language interface with the value of up-to-date sports scores, news, stock quotes, and more.
Search is now about your preferred interface, experience, and engine.
Meta is developing an AI search engine, to be embedded in its Meta AI chatbot. The company has reportedly been indexing the web for at least eight months.Meta AI currently uses Google and Bing’s search engines when it fetches users answers about current events, financial markets, and sports.
This highlights a few things: