∞
[Trump] wants tariffs on imports and intends to shrink the labor pool by reducing migration, both of which economists say could have inflationary outcomes, making the Federal Reserve less inclined to reduce interest rates.

As mentioned in Why I think 11/6 was a release valve, there is now a window before expected price increases hit, especially on imported goods.

Some purchases will pull forward. Then things could really slow down.

∞
The study found that companies that relied heavily on social ads weren’t getting their full money’s worth.

This is because so-called “light social users,” who don’t use their social apps as much compared to other apps on their phone, make up a large proportion of consumers.

The days of scaling a DTC e-commerce brand on Meta ads alone are long gone.

Think outside the feed.

∞

Thoughts on building a media network from the NBA Front Office Show that’s also great brand building advice. 🏀

You want to do things really well before you just try to do a lot of things.

That’s one of the biggest mistakes people make is, “I want to do everything.”

Let’s do one thing really well first.

Find your niche. Get great at that. Then you can branch out.

∞

Why I think 11/6 was a release valve

⚡️ A question is now an answer, attention is freed up, and ad auction pressure is relieved.

As I said at the end of Election Campaign Spending Crowds Out Your Messaging:

Your marketing and messaging is like a fire, it needs a steady source of fuel to keep burning—to act as a beacon to the people it’s for. The election is a vacuum, it sucks all the oxygen (and attention) out, making it all but impossible for that fire to keep burning without any changes.

The election coming to an end, along with its ad campaigns (and the now unlikely possibility of a January 6 repeat), brings closure to the biggest uncertainty event of the year.

The oxygen is back.

The election ending opened a whole new can of worms, of course. I’m not saying it’s all rainbow giggles and unicorn farts now. But people and societies don’t do well with uncertainty.

It’s like when you have a vacation coming up—or a holiday—you know life continues on the other side of it, but all your focus is on getting to that date. It’s a planning and attention checkpoint. Your main focus is on getting prepared for and then enjoying that cabin getaway or Thanksgiving or girls’ trip.

That’s the election, but at the societal level.

The Guy Fawkes dam has burst, the emotions released. Now there will be hirings and firings, moves and migrations, revenge shopping and stockpiling. Oh, and the holidaze.

If I’m reading tea leaves, this is the brew I’m using to inform this guess:

  • Halloween spend was big
  • Inflations measures cooled a bit in September (specifically energy costs)
  • The Fed dropped the rate again
  • Consumer spending grew a bit more in September
  • Amazon’s fall Prime Day event went big, but holiday shopping played a small part—like the OG summer event, essentials and little luxuries were the big drivers
  • Tariffs are coming (one of the worms in said can), some purchases will be pulled forward to avoid their impact

The oxygen is back. The fires can be stoked again.

∞

Some insight on Pinterest Performance+ bidding for shopping campaigns:

  • Performance+ bidding optimizes for checkout volume—as many as possible.
  • The new (& in beta) ROAS bidding optimizes for return on ad spend by focusing on higher-price items.

Algorithms give you what you ask for.