Why I Am Not Using “Notes”

Disguised as a post about a Substack feature is a reminder that:

  • Most new platform features are attempts at moat building
  • You don’t have to use every bell & whistle
  • You can treat social media as a public journal that you repurpose elsewhere later

Are you trying to find a solution for a problem you haven’t created yet?

A hypothesis is useless without a test.

Pick a measuring stick and get going. Iterate over time.

You can’t have a return on investment if all you’ve invested in is planning out how to measure ROI.

Are you trying to find a solution for a problem you haven’t created yet? graphic

via the Louder Than Words podcast


Saturday Marketing Links | 031624

AI Prompt Engineering Is Dead / Long live AI prompt engineering

According to one research team, no human should manually optimize prompts ever again.

There is an alternative to the trial-and-error-style prompt engineering that yielded such inconsistent results: Ask the language model to devise its own optimal prompt.

this automatically generated prompt did better than the best prompt found through trial-and-error. And, the process was much faster

The optimal prompts the algorithm spit out were so bizarre, no human is likely to have ever come up with them.

The centaur approach is usually better than all human or all AI (at least for a while).

Which makes sense since the two types of “brains” function differently. It’s about finding the optimal combination of the two, not one directing the other.

Speaking of…

Of top-notch algorithms and zoned-out humans

A low-grade algorithm and a switched-on human make better decisions together than a top-notch algorithm with a zoned-out human. And when the algorithm is top-notch, a zoned-out human turns out to be what you get.

rather than thinking of the machine as a replacement for the human, the most interesting questions focus on the sometimes-fraught collaboration between the two.

Gold, bitcoin and stocks hit record highs this week. Then came inflation data

investors shrugged off a higher-than-expected 3.2% annual rise in consumer prices and cheered a cooldown in some categories like food prices.

US wholesale inflation rose 1.6% for the 12 months ended in February, its fastest clip in months, due to a spike in energy prices.

Markets expect the central bank to hold rates steady this month and begin cutting in June or July

Consumer prices climbed 3.2% in February as 2% goal remains elusive

The 12-month inflation rate has been stuck between 3% and 4% since June, hovering just above the Federal Reserve’s official 2% target


Finished reading: Head Lopper Vol. 2: Crimson Tower by Andrew Maclean 📚


Friday Marketing Links | 031524

  1. TikTok’s potential U.S. ban stirs marketers, spurs contingency planning

Meta could capture between 22.5% and 27.5% of TikTok’s U.S. ad revenues in the event of a ban.

YouTube stands to gain an additional $1.24 billion to $1.53 billion, with $410 million to $500 million of TikTok’s ad revenues redirected to Google’s display and search businesses

One of the early thought exercises I was given at Blue Ion was: what happens if Meta was shut down tomorrow?

It’s a good question to occasionally ask about any important distribution channels.

  1. Apple Buys Canadian AI Startup as It Races to Add Features

DarwinAI has developed AI technology for visually inspecting components during the manufacturing process and serves customers in a range of industries. But one of its core technologies is making artificial intelligence systems smaller and faster. That work that could be helpful to Apple, which is focused on running AI on devices rather than entirely in the cloud.

Apple was launching Vision Pro while the rest of the Valley Giants were pivoting to AI. But the benefit of a massive bank account is the ability to buy whatever you want.

Apple has also been really secretive about their AI plans, claiming “disclosure of strategic plans and initiatives harmful to our competitive position and would be premature in this developing area.”

Apple is at the forefront of ambient computing, and on-device AI will be a key component. Plus, Apple is the only one of the giants that isn’t really a cloud company and is most definitely a hardware company.

  1. Report Finds No Correlation Between Social Media Engagement and Content Readership

Social media apps are gradually becoming more valued as entertainment sources, while actual interaction shifts to smaller, enclosed chats and communities.

Notice how all the platforms focus on “discovery.”

Across all the articles and topics we analyzed, we found no clear connection between social engagement and actual readers of the news.

Understand vanity metrics vs. brand metrics vs. performance metrics.

  1. Podcast Frenzy Report

podcasting is taking over traditional media consumption time, with respondents reporting 28% of them watch less TV and 24% browse social media less often. Gen Z podcast discovery is a mix of methods. 46% of Gen Z respondents rely on social media recommendations, and 33% of younger Gen Z browse top charts and “best of” podcast lists.

Audio! Audio! Audio!

  1. What We Learned About Creative From Analyzing $3M in Podcast Media by Caroline Culbertson

Findings include midrolls outperforming both pre-rolls and post-rolls for placement. A quiet value-add for host-read contracts is hosts tend to go over their contracted ad length. Right Side Up found the sweet spot for “60 second” host-read ad performance was host-read creatives that landed between one to three minutes.

Podcasts foster parasocial relationships which gives host-read ads some extra oomph in the persuasion department.

  1. The bad ad ecosystem: Here’s what the research says

five types of bad ads, each varying in harm for the marketer: malicious ads, spoofed ads, scam ads, heavy ads and miscategorized ads.

The easiest thing is [ad buys] are cheap. [Bad ad creators] don’t wanna spend a ton of money on it. So they proliferate in places with really low CPMs

marketers should work on making good ads. Ensuring the proper ads for the right environments is key, along with keeping on top of creative

  1. Layoffs could be coming as debt-laden firms navigate the pain of higher rates, economists say

Higher rates spell trouble for US companies with near-term debt maturities.

Rate changes and inflation measures are the important indicators this year.