The indicators are fine, the vibes are bad
A fair amount of US economic hard data — like consumer spending, a 3% rise in core GDP last quarter, and this latest jobs report — have suggested the economy is holding up despite broad uncertainty
But
Last week delivered the lowest reading on the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index since 2011
I usually think in terms of animal spirits, which should mean bad vibes cause bad indicators. But that connection seems weak these days.
Does political tribalism and attention-capture news mean we just always think things are bad and COVID rewired our spending response behavior?
A perma-vibecession soundtracked by ringing registers?
via The Daily Upside
Audio on!
“That move led to a spike in branded search, stronger revenue, and better margins, even as their overall category was in decline,” Shah writes. “Audio wasn’t just supporting awareness. It was delivering real revenue results.”
Because ears are different than eyes
helps build emotional connection and memory structures that influence buying behavior
Why you need pre-search discovery
up to 30 percent of search clicks are actually driven by exposure to other media like video and Audio
Audio is part of (almost) every strategy I write these days.
About that pull forward…again
Behind the 0.3% contraction in GDP [in Q1] were numbers economists called “extreme” and “weird.”
businesses hastily moved to get ahead of new levies and bring goods into the US.
2.2 percentage points of that investment gain was due to companies boosting their inventories to beat tariffs. Consumers, meanwhile, spent on big ticket items like cars, motivated by the same forces.
This was before all the April Liberation Day related shenanigans too.
The theme of Q1: buy and hold.
How much spending potential is left?
via The Daily Upside
Again, about that pull forward…
From The Daily Upside:
To prepare for a slowdown of global trade, US retailers have spent months stocking up, building a massive inventory of products. It’s all in fear of the ultimate retail boogeyman: empty shelves.
This will either delay the supply shock or, if avoided, dampen future purchasing activity until inventory normalizes.
Or, we’re in for some crazy sales as retailers try to catch up to “normal” and liquidate overstock.
It’s a little paradoxical, but good ads simultaneously tell us two things: (1) you won’t be a total weirdo if you buy this product because others are using it too, and (2) this product will make you stand out from everybody else.
David Perell is right.
People want to be unique. “Authentic” to themselves.
But only in a way that is socially acceptable within their tribe.
Fitting in by standing out.
Ads usually boil down to selling a spot at the cool kids’ table.
Or, as Seth says, “people like us do things like this.”
Of course, you have to be right about the “people”, “things”, and “us”.