Tyler Cowen asked Kyla Scanlon (economics communicator/educator) about TikTok, Reels, and social media in general. Her combination of digital publishing experience and economics knowledge makes her POV valuable.

What does the crystal ball say? 🔮

think that the scroll model will have to shift. I’m not sure what it’ll shift to, but I think that sort of motion is going to not be so enticing soon. But yes, I think it’ll definitely be much more interactive, and the user will be able to direct it much more than in the algorithm

Short-form video has eaten the world, which means another format will soon disrupt it.

On TikTok vs Reels:

What’s nice about Instagram as a platform is that you have stories and that you have posts and you have reels, versus TikTok does have stories, but when you scroll on TikTok, you don’t really scroll for a single person. Instagram — you’re able to curate more of a personality because there’s a profile page. It’s not as algorithmic. There’s more intentionality, I think, with the platform design, versus TikTok just wants to keep you scrolling and scrolling and scrolling. I think Instagram — it seems to be okay if you stray from the path awhile.

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It’s beginning to feel like two trends are converging in a way that will limit TikTok’s upside more than any ban.

The first is how the transition from school life to work life caps available media time, forcing an age out of sorts on The Trend Machine’s attention black hole effect.

The second is The Clock App’s Shop obsession:

TikTok really wants to make a lot of money, and they’re like, “If we sell commerce, if we sell goods to people, that’ll be the way that we make money.” Now, every other video for people is a face mask or a purse or clothes. You have users that are constantly being advertised to. I think more people view TikTok as an exhausting experience than one of connection, as it was in 2020.

I’m far from a meme expert, but this from Seb Joseph makes sense:

Whether it’s a visual gag, an absurd tagline or a quirky prop, marketers are designing for memefication – baking internet culture into the DNA of their campaigns to ensure they resonate in a world where memes and controversy are the currency of relevance.

“Marketers, if they weren’t already, are now thinking about their brand’s personality with the same nuance they’d use to craft a character in a novel,” said Brundage.

Brands with personalities aren’t just gimmicks – they’re closer to culture than the naysayers think.

Personality is how you stand out.

Also, mass culture is dead:

Subcultures aren’t niche anymore – they’re the culture.

COWEN: I don’t know. There are still democratic incentives in the system. I think people think in generational terms, maybe more than is warranted by the data. I’ve had this discussion with Peter Thiel. He talks about boomers and millennials and Generation X and Z. To me, it’s a continuum, and it’s the events at any point in time that matter a bit more, but I think people disagree on these questions. I don’t think it’s settled.

SCANLON: In terms of?

COWEN: How different different generations are, whether it’s a continuum or you have these fixed start and stop points.

SCANLON: Well, I think it’s in the cult-y thing that we were talking about earlier, where it’s like people want to belong to a certain generation. It’s easy to put yourself in a box that way.

COWEN: Yes, I’m never convinced that’s the right way to look at it.

SCANLON: I don’t think so. I think it creates more problems than answers.

Because generations are garbage