Dead Reckoning
- auto
- food out of home
- furniture
- internet
- pet care
- utilities
Consumer confidence dipped in August. Thanks expectations!
Gas prices remain top of mind, while
Comments about war/conflict, food/groceries, trade, and jobs rose in August.
People are planning less discretionary spending on experiences. Things people still plan to spend on include:
All in line with yesterday’s needs based buying post.
The Expectations index includes Q4. I expect early planning, flighted purchasing, and strong deal seeking during Black Friday and holiday sales.
Wallet pressure waits for no store. Walmart is feeling the squeeze.
The Bentonville, Arkansas-based retailer said heightened petrol prices are to blame for the slowdown in spending.
“When fuel prices increase and get above $4, perhaps there’s a psychological impact to that … consumers are making trade-offs,” CFO John David Rainey said on a call with analysts on Thursday.
As consumers spend less, each potential purchase needs to work harder to close the sale.
Q4 is looming
The IMF’s global economic growth target dropped to 3% next year. So prepare for more grumblings about prices and inflation.
The takeaway: disgruntled shoppers will be hunting for deals and trading down for longer.
Why the forecast drop?
The outlook is uneven: The war shock is weighing on energy importers and vulnerable economies, while AI-driven demand is lifting countries integrated into the global technology value chain.
Global disinflation has stalled. Risks are more balanced than in April, but downside risks from renewed conflict and financial market repricing persist.