The IMF’s global economic growth target dropped to 3% next year. So prepare for more grumblings about prices and inflation.

The takeaway: disgruntled shoppers will be hunting for deals and trading down for longer.

Why the forecast drop?

The outlook is uneven: The war shock is weighing on energy importers and vulnerable economies, while AI-driven demand is lifting countries integrated into the global technology value chain.

Global disinflation has stalled. Risks are more balanced than in April, but downside risks from renewed conflict and financial market repricing persist.