Trends & Macro
- auto
- food out of home
- furniture
- internet
- pet care
- utilities
- 5 cents higher than yesterday
- 20 cents higher than a week ago
- More than 1 dollar higher than a year ago
Continuing my recent series of posts about the consumer mindset…
What is “value” for consumers?
value is increasingly defined not simply by price but by a product’s ability to meet specific needs, improve daily life, and deliver a meaningful period of ownership.
For tech, this is
products that deliver stronger utility, productivity, and long-term value
creating opportunities for brands that clearly connect innovation with everyday consumer needs.
Price is the cost.
Value is the return.
Even consumers want a positive ROI.
via Circana
Consumer confidence dipped in August. Thanks expectations!
Gas prices remain top of mind, while
Comments about war/conflict, food/groceries, trade, and jobs rose in August.
People are planning less discretionary spending on experiences. Things people still plan to spend on include:
All in line with yesterday’s needs based buying post.
The Expectations index includes Q4. I expect early planning, flighted purchasing, and strong deal seeking during Black Friday and holiday sales.
Circana has a good post on recent consumer spending habits.
The era of value-seeking is being replaced by needs-based purchasing behavior.
Discretionary purchasing is pulling back
&
Growth is more concentrated among higher-income households and a narrowing set of categories, particularly those that deliver clear value, convenience, health benefits or affordable enjoyment.
4 vectors of tangible life improvement.
The IMF’s global economic growth target dropped to 3% next year. So prepare for more grumblings about prices and inflation.
The takeaway: disgruntled shoppers will be hunting for deals and trading down for longer.
Why the forecast drop?
The outlook is uneven: The war shock is weighing on energy importers and vulnerable economies, while AI-driven demand is lifting countries integrated into the global technology value chain.
Global disinflation has stalled. Risks are more balanced than in April, but downside risks from renewed conflict and financial market repricing persist.
The BLS Shops the Produce Aisle 🍅 📈
Tomato prices have surged nearly 40% in April, reflecting broader inflation trends driven by rising fuel costs and impacting consumer wallets as summer approaches.
Consumer sentiment ticked down a pinch, current conditions took a hit (gas pump economics).
About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices and about 30% mentioned tariffs. Taken together, consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump. Middle East developments are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until supply disruptions have been fully resolved and energy prices fall.
Speaking of inflation:
current reading still substantially exceeds the 3.4% reading seen in February prior to the start of the Iran war,
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Only a $0.258 increase in gas prices since this time last week, slipping in under the back-to-back $0.30 mark.
Fun with extrapolation: at this rate we’re looking at $5.00 / gallon gas prices in time for Memorial Day weekend.
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On 4/30, AAA posted this headline: Oil Prices Spike, National Average Up Nearly 30 Cents in One Week
The national average (for regular) was then pegged at $4.300.
Today (5/4), the national average is $4.457. This headline might get recycled this week.
This is Ozempic for wallets.
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Fill your tank, empty your wallet.
AAA’s fuel price tracker shows as of today, average national price per gallon is:
In March, Bank of America was already reporting:
spending at the pump surging 16.5% month-over-month
Gas pump economics: the more money is pumped into tanks, the less disposable income is left for discretionary and status purchases.
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