Gas Pump Economics
- auto
- food out of home
- furniture
- internet
- pet care
- utilities
- 5 cents higher than yesterday
- 20 cents higher than a week ago
- More than 1 dollar higher than a year ago
Consumer confidence dipped in August. Thanks expectations!
Gas prices remain top of mind, while
Comments about war/conflict, food/groceries, trade, and jobs rose in August.
People are planning less discretionary spending on experiences. Things people still plan to spend on include:
All in line with yesterday’s needs based buying post.
The Expectations index includes Q4. I expect early planning, flighted purchasing, and strong deal seeking during Black Friday and holiday sales.
Wallet pressure waits for no store. Walmart is feeling the squeeze.
The Bentonville, Arkansas-based retailer said heightened petrol prices are to blame for the slowdown in spending.
“When fuel prices increase and get above $4, perhaps there’s a psychological impact to that … consumers are making trade-offs,” CFO John David Rainey said on a call with analysts on Thursday.
As consumers spend less, each potential purchase needs to work harder to close the sale.
Q4 is looming
Shoppers are still spending, but gas prices are stretching the dollars in their pockets and credit is starting to fill the gap more.
The wheel is spinning again for the ongoing gas pump roulette that’s harshing the vibes.
Hot staycation summer?
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The BLS Shops the Produce Aisle 🍅 📈
Tomato prices have surged nearly 40% in April, reflecting broader inflation trends driven by rising fuel costs and impacting consumer wallets as summer approaches.
Consumer sentiment ticked down a pinch, current conditions took a hit (gas pump economics).
About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices and about 30% mentioned tariffs. Taken together, consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump. Middle East developments are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until supply disruptions have been fully resolved and energy prices fall.
Speaking of inflation:
current reading still substantially exceeds the 3.4% reading seen in February prior to the start of the Iran war,
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Only a $0.258 increase in gas prices since this time last week, slipping in under the back-to-back $0.30 mark.
Fun with extrapolation: at this rate we’re looking at $5.00 / gallon gas prices in time for Memorial Day weekend.
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On 4/30, AAA posted this headline: Oil Prices Spike, National Average Up Nearly 30 Cents in One Week
The national average (for regular) was then pegged at $4.300.
Today (5/4), the national average is $4.457. This headline might get recycled this week.
This is Ozempic for wallets.
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Fill your tank, empty your wallet.
AAA’s fuel price tracker shows as of today, average national price per gallon is:
In March, Bank of America was already reporting:
spending at the pump surging 16.5% month-over-month
Gas pump economics: the more money is pumped into tanks, the less disposable income is left for discretionary and status purchases.
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Consumers were a wee bit more confident to start April, but that might be because they thought the conflict in the Middle East was winding down. As it’s clear high gas prices are putting a damper on the “present situation.”
Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism in April. Comments about prices, oil and gas, and war increased in frequency compared to March—a likely signal of consumers’ underlying worries about how the war in the Middle East will impact their pockets.
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Airlines are expecting to pay billions more in fuel costs this year
Fuel typically accounts for a quarter of carriers’ expenses, but that proportion’s likely to dramatically spike this year.
Consumer’s purchasing power is getting squeezed and most of the country is experiencing drought conditions. The vibes may not be great this summer.
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