Consumers are weird this year. They’re willing to spend, they just don’t feel good about it.

Record back-to-school spending and falling consumer confidence sent seemingly contradictory signals this year, but together they point to the trend likely to define the holiday 2026 shopping season: Consumers remain willing to spend, yet increasingly focused on value, promotions and purchase timing.

Consumers’ mood rings aren’t helped by the fact that they’re just paying more, not getting more.

growth is heavily price-driven as inflation-adjusted spending per child declined and the bifurcation between income cohorts widened further.

As we head towards the holiday season, a steady diet of political attack ads is unlikely to make people feel better.

November 3/4 is a pressure release valve. Political ad spending plummets just as retail and holiday ads are ready to fill the void. The headline machine is still spinning, but the immediacy to act is gone.

No matter what, a portion of the population is getting a dopamine hit. How long that lasts (and how it impacts spending) might depend on the level of post-election WWE cage fight we’re subjected to.