∞

We’ve started to see performance bounce back for our clients most in danger of a “pre-election slump” (vindication!), so I’m dipping back into [that wel(https://curiousmarketers.club/2024/09/07/this-fall-will.html) one more time.

via Sounds Profitable:

Many brands either reduced or outright halted investments in influencer marketing to barricade themselves from political blowback during a heated election season.

Not only did the campaigns spend a lot, but other advertisers spent less, furthering the omnipresence of political messaging.

Consumer focus narrowed and behavior followed.

∞

Google Analytics 4 adds benchmarking data

reference metrics that help you compare your business performance against the performance of other businesses in your industry.

in percentiles (median, 25th, and 75th) based on peer groups of businesses for a wide range of industry categories. The businesses that form the peer groups are determined by an industry category assigned to each property. This industry category is determined by a combination of factors including the broad industry category provided in setup and signals from things like a property’s URLs and App attributes.

∞

Google’s getting ready for shopping szn

Google Lens

Google Lens can quickly show you product insights tailored to the store you’re in. Just snap a photo to find product information, similar products in-stock, whether a store’s price is competitive and shopper reviews.

Shop Via Maps

search for products in Maps and find nearby stores selling them

As the moat around Google’s Knowledge Graph erodes in a post-AI world, the “Shopping Graph” may be the next fulcrum for revenue growth.

∞

Samsung and Google are working on smart glasses to rival Meta’s Ray Bans to be released late next year.

Gemini would handle AI tasks alongside support for “payment,” QR code recognition, “gesture recognition,” and “human recognition functions.”

I think we’ve found the most probable next consumer computing platform.

AI needs a computer, but not necessarily a screen.

The era of ambient computing is upon us.

∞

Pew Research has released the latest update to its data set on US adult social media usage.

The trends:

  • YouTube, Facebook up
  • big gap
  • Instagram growing
  • TikTok dipped
  • Pinterest: more popular than you think?
  • Up: LinkedIn, Reddit
  • Steady: WhatsApp, Snapchat, BeReal
  • Down: X (Twitter)
∞

A survey says trio

A study by Harvard Business Review found that 95% of purchasing decisions are emotional, not rational. 

Research shows that 40% of impulse purchases lead to regret, which can hit return rates hard.

Studies show that loyal customers are 60-70% more likely to convert than new customers.
  1. This is what always bothered me about economics, humans aren’t rational engines.
  2. The sale doesn’t truly end until the item gets used.
  3. Retention is the most important part*.

*caveat that not all businesses are high-repeat

∞
[Trump] wants tariffs on imports and intends to shrink the labor pool by reducing migration, both of which economists say could have inflationary outcomes, making the Federal Reserve less inclined to reduce interest rates.

As mentioned in Why I think 11/6 was a release valve, there is now a window before expected price increases hit, especially on imported goods.

Some purchases will pull forward. Then things could really slow down.

∞
The study found that companies that relied heavily on social ads weren’t getting their full money’s worth.

This is because so-called “light social users,” who don’t use their social apps as much compared to other apps on their phone, make up a large proportion of consumers.

The days of scaling a DTC e-commerce brand on Meta ads alone are long gone.

Think outside the feed.

∞

Thoughts on building a media network from the NBA Front Office Show that’s also great brand building advice. 🏀

You want to do things really well before you just try to do a lot of things.

That’s one of the biggest mistakes people make is, “I want to do everything.”

Let’s do one thing really well first.

Find your niche. Get great at that. Then you can branch out.

∞

Why I think 11/6 was a release valve

⚡️ A question is now an answer, attention is freed up, and ad auction pressure is relieved.

As I said at the end of Election Campaign Spending Crowds Out Your Messaging:

Your marketing and messaging is like a fire, it needs a steady source of fuel to keep burning—to act as a beacon to the people it’s for. The election is a vacuum, it sucks all the oxygen (and attention) out, making it all but impossible for that fire to keep burning without any changes.

The election coming to an end, along with its ad campaigns (and the now unlikely possibility of a January 6 repeat), brings closure to the biggest uncertainty event of the year.

The oxygen is back.

The election ending opened a whole new can of worms, of course. I’m not saying it’s all rainbow giggles and unicorn farts now. But people and societies don’t do well with uncertainty.

It’s like when you have a vacation coming up—or a holiday—you know life continues on the other side of it, but all your focus is on getting to that date. It’s a planning and attention checkpoint. Your main focus is on getting prepared for and then enjoying that cabin getaway or Thanksgiving or girls’ trip.

That’s the election, but at the societal level.

The Guy Fawkes dam has burst, the emotions released. Now there will be hirings and firings, moves and migrations, revenge shopping and stockpiling. Oh, and the holidaze.

If I’m reading tea leaves, this is the brew I’m using to inform this guess:

  • Halloween spend was big
  • Inflations measures cooled a bit in September (specifically energy costs)
  • The Fed dropped the rate again
  • Consumer spending grew a bit more in September
  • Amazon’s fall Prime Day event went big, but holiday shopping played a small part—like the OG summer event, essentials and little luxuries were the big drivers
  • Tariffs are coming (one of the worms in said can), some purchases will be pulled forward to avoid their impact

The oxygen is back. The fires can be stoked again.

∞

Some insight on Pinterest Performance+ bidding for shopping campaigns:

  • Performance+ bidding optimizes for checkout volume—as many as possible.
  • The new (& in beta) ROAS bidding optimizes for return on ad spend by focusing on higher-price items.

Algorithms give you what you ask for.

∞

Nike: A Cautionary Tale

Building a brand is:

  • Expensive in the short run
  • Cheap in the long run

But a strong brand can also become a crutch.

See: Nike.

When you’re trying to build a brand you’re aggressive. Focused.

Your focus is on meeting your customer where they are and doing the things that create moments of delight for them. On doing the things that make people, first, fall in love with your brand and, then, talk about it to others. To begin to incorporate your brand into their identity.

Once you’ve built your brand—reached that mountain top—you can start to lose focus.

You can start to forget about everything you did to get to this spot and start to think you deserve this spot.

You can make choices based on financial models and balance sheet forecasts and forget those dollars come from people.

And while you’re looking in the wrong direction, the next group of brands is doing all the stuff you did to get here.

Building a brand is the beginning. Once built, it requires maintenance.

Brands aren’t owed anything.
&
Everything is customer service.

∞

Meta is all about Reels, but video is the hardest asset type to produce (I’d accept the argument for audio, but it’s not relevant for Meta). So this note is welcome news for many:

carousels with music are now also eligible to appear in the Reels tab

More from the head of IG:

Why [do] carousels often get more reach than photos? Two main reasons. One, multiple pieces of media are going to mean more interactions with your carousel posts, and more interactions is going to mean more reach on average. And two, if someone sees your carousel post but they don’t swipe, we’ll often give that carousel a second chance and automatically move to that second piece of media for the viewer.

Just remember the secret quality score, this won’t be a silver bullet.

∞

I posted on LinkedIn to “pay attention to the details.”

Called it a note to self, maybe should have been a note to Costco.

Costco recalled nearly 80,000 pounds of its Kirkland-brand butter products last month because they were missing a legally-required “Contains Milk” allergy statement.

This recall could’ve been avoided and impacted completely usable products, which has the potential for major losses for Costco. Don’t let this be your product – always make sure to double-check product packaging before going to production.
∞
Customer service is a chance to create delight and impact. It can amplify or undermine the marketing investments that you say are important

As in all things, getting the systems right is the foundation for everything else that follows.

Everything is customer service

∞

According to EMARKETER, we’re almost at peak media with “a plateauing of consumption in the 11 media formats measured.”

Americans are forecast to add 5 minutes of media consumption next year, and 4 the year after.

Social is basically saturated.

What’s your reach strategy now?

Think outside the feed.

∞

Turns out Meta has a hidden quality score for ads.

According to my Meta rep (who can’t see the actual score), the algorithm analyzes over 500 aspects of each creative to determine how performant it is / will be and that drives placement opportunity.

Right now, Meta wants Reels.

∞

I ended my post on lessons from Dropout with:

Trying to do what the industry heavyweight(s) does but a bit better is not a viable plan. Finding the gap in their model—the unserved audience—is a winning plan.

Know the game you’re playing. Know the way you want to play it. Know the strengths and weaknesses of the other players. Know your style. Know the loophole.

I decided to make a diagram

∞

consumer confidence fell unexpectedly mid-October

What could have caused that 🤔

Fall 2024: the vibe got weird #analysis

there’s a lot of uncertainty. There’s financial strains. The election is behind us, but there’s always a transition uncertainty that happens that gets people no matter who wins. And if it’s your side or not your side, that still gets people a little bit worried before the official transition happens next year. So I think consumers are coming from a place of I don’t want to say scared, but a little bit more cautious

People might just ease into 2025 at this point.

∞

Seth builds on this sentiment in this great podcast strategy walkthrough.

There are 4 decisions you make that determine the future of your business.

When you pick your:

  • Customers
  • Competitors
  • Distribution
  • Constraints