This doesn’t surprise me

Retail sales, which captures spending on all goods and food services, fell 0.8% in January
That was even lower than the downwardly revised 0.4% increase in December, and well below economists’ expectations of a 0.1% decline

Black Friday was huge and early January showed signs of slowing spend, a holiday hangover of sorts.

Tax season and spring might thaw things a bit, but we’re back in the land of general economic uncertainty (which I have thoughts on)

via CNN

I’m turning into a Google bear 🐻

An antitrust trial this fall

Shedding services

Competition from OpenAI: Develops Web Search Product in Challenge to Google

Arc Search getting buzz (I’ve used it & can easily see this being a glimpse of search’s future)

& now Nvidia passes Google’s market cap

It’s important to remember that each individual listener actually does experience the record in their own way.

Even though the online and streaming mentalities seem to flatten out that individual experience.

It’s important to remember that every individual listener is hearing the record their own way.

-Jason P. Woodbury

Don’t let the promise of scale and mass trick you into thinking you’re talking to a mass.

Two Anthony De Mello quotes:

A village blacksmith found an apprentice willing to work hard at low pay. The smith immediately began his instructions to the lad: “When I take the metal out of the fire, I’ll lay it on the anvil; and when I nod my head you hit it with the hammer.” The apprentice did precisely what he thought he was told. Next day he was the village blacksmith.

&

Those who make no mistakes are making the biggest mistake of all-they are attempting nothing new.

We’re not rational decision makers, we’re rationalizing decision makers.

An important fact to keep in mind.
We justify a purchase after—not before—making it.

via Tom Webster / Sounds Profitable

NVIDIA’s new local LLM chatbot seems tailor made to corporate office/knowledge workers

Those with compatible hardware can now install Chat With RTX, an AI chatbot that turns local files into its dataset.

At its core, Chat With RTX is a personal assistant that digs through your documents and notes. It saves you the trouble of manually searching through files you’ve written, downloaded, or received from others.

can also pull transcripts from YouTube videos.

a matter-of-fact tone

No offsite data transfer.
“Chat” with local files.
At the very least, employee onboarding could become easier.

Soft landing? More like slow landing.

CNN spoke with the Atlanta Fed President, who:

is anticipating the nation’s inflation rate — which currently stands at around 3% — will be near “the lower twos” by the end of 2024.

& said

With that outlook, I really see the first move coming sometime in the summertime

Thing is, according to Fed data our current rate environment is more the norm compared to the 0 rate exception the market got used to.

A chart of historic Federal Reserve rates since the 60s showing a much longer period of volatile (and higher rates) than the post-Great Recession 0% rate environment that modern Silicon Valley and stock marketism was built on

Earlier this month I asked if Google was now Microsoft.

Magic 8 ball says “Signs point to yes” 🎱

via Inside:

A U.S. federal judge has scheduled an antitrust trial against Google for Sept. 9, 2024. The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) lawsuit targets the search giant’s alleged monopoly over online advertising.

If, like Microsoft, Big G limits/unwinds development to avoid more antitrust actions, we may have seen the last of Google as portal to the Internet.

& yes, it’s an existing trend that is accelerating.

& yes, Microsoft pulled a phoenix so it’s not necessarily The End.

Nearly 90% of consumers no longer trust influencers

Consumers are becoming fed up with influencer marketing and are starting to seek out user-generated content (UGC), or brand-related content created by customers instead

This is people’s natural preference for something that feels more like word-of-mouth than paid advertising. Influencers are part of “the system” now.

TikTok’s Shop push isn’t likely to help this either.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this was more about mega-influencers and obviously paid promo material either.

An important caveat to the Stanley Drops.

They were the fuel, not the fire or the fire starter.

The frenzy is “something that was, and still is, actually driven by women content creators”

Most brands won’t be able to start trends. It’s about knowing what to do when you find one.

via Garbage Day

Drops: the key to Stanley Mania™️

Stanley hired Terence Reilly, the marketer credited for reinventing Crocs. Reading between the lines of what Reilly has said about his work at Stanley, it seems like his main strategy for both Crocs and the Quencher was capitalizing on internet buzz and growing it into otaku product worship. Or as Inc. phrased it in their feature on him, he uses a “scarcity model” to whip up interest. Cut to three years later, now we’re seeing mini-riots over limited edition Stanleys at Target.

via Garbage Day

Some thoughts on the Vision Pro from Benedict Evans:

  • Any use case that doesn’t land on the pinnacle of current tech—watching sports, gaming, whatever—probably isn’t going to happen ever.
  • With AirPods and the Watch, Apple is already an augmented reality company, just not in a glasses form factor.

“The buying of time or space is not the taking out of a hunting license on someone’s private preserve, but it is the renting of a stage on which we may perform.”

-Howard Luck Gossage

&

“Advertising builds brands best when it is entertaining, popular, and memorable, when it is not just a pitch, but a performance.”

-Paul Feldwick

via Westwood One

Podcast consumers prefer funny and entertaining ads but say they currently hear more ads that communicate dry features/benefits

Appealing to consumers on an emotional basis is what podcast hosts do best and they should extend that method to their ad reads.

via Westwood One

Podcast ads are well suited for brand discovery, a stage that should be focused more on creating an emotional connection and less on reading your spec sheet.

Of course, if you have an offer you know works, you can use that too.

Have a personality, show it off.

the most powerful institutions, brands and people are the ones who are in alignment with their audience.

-Seth Godin

Streamers differentiate on content.

The tech is basically all the same and you can only do some many things on the interface front.

The “every one has a streaming service” wave meant it was about the content you could create. The end of the free money train ended that as a viable strategy.

Now it’s about games: video and sports.

Thus Disney to take $1.5 billion stake in Epic Games, work with Fortnite maker on new content

Iger calls it:

an important step when you look at the demographic trends and where Gen Alpha and Gen Z and even millennials are spending their time and media

Speaking of chips, Nvidia is feeling the heat from the new crop of startups looking to serve the exploding AI market with custom fabs.

Nvidia is building a new business unit focused on designing bespoke chips for cloud computing firms and others, including advanced artificial intelligence (AI) processors

via Channel NewsAsia

Sam Altman’s next galaxy brain idea:

Sam Altman Seeks Trillions of Dollars to Reshape Business of Chips and AI 🔒

The project could require raising as much as $5 trillion to $7 trillion

Such a sum of investment would dwarf the current size of the global semiconductor industry. Global sales of chips were $527 billion last year and are expected to rise to $1 trillion annually by 2030.

Altman has said he wants to build dozens of chip-fabrication plants in the next few years, the people said. His vision would be to raise the money from Middle East investors and have TSMC build and run them.

Finished reading: Agostino by Alberto Moravia 📚

Why might the investment in brand marketing be increasing?

MarTech: Web analytics is badly broken

Apple has led the charge with Intelligent Tracking Prevention, Mail Privacy Protection, restricted IDFA tracking, iCloud Private Relay, Private Click Measurement, & more.

A 2021 study from YouGov suggests that most countries are registering a maximum 60-70% cookie banner acceptance rate

That drops to ~35% in the US.

Also 🍪 = ☠️