For reasons related to what Benedict Evans calls out here (which is very much worth a read),it’s time to develop a good understanding of Gell-Mann Amnesia.
Per Wiktionary:
The phenomenon of a person trusting newspapers for topics which that person is not knowledgeable about, despite recognizing the newspaper as being extremely inaccurate on certain topics which that person is knowledgeable about.
Our hype detectors need to be well tuned. Testing the new on what we know is a good foundational practice.
The BLS Shops the Produce Aisle 🍅 📈
Tomato prices have surged nearly 40% in April, reflecting broader inflation trends driven by rising fuel costs and impacting consumer wallets as summer approaches.
These four questions for management from Peter Drucker work just as well when you ask them about clients and customers:
- What does the other party want?
- What are its values?
- What are its goals?
- What does it consider results?
How would your clients or customers answer those questions?
How does your product or service align with those answers?
Signaling & Status 📍
What you convey to your customers.
What your customers use you to convey to others.
If you’re basing a decision / recommendation in reasoning that starts “everyone is doing…”
You’re wrong
The monoculture is dead
& your filter bubble is showing
Consumer sentiment ticked down a pinch, current conditions took a hit (gas pump economics).
About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices and about 30% mentioned tariffs. Taken together, consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump. Middle East developments are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until supply disruptions have been fully resolved and energy prices fall.
Speaking of inflation:
current reading still substantially exceeds the 3.4% reading seen in February prior to the start of the Iran war,
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