Tyler Cowen asked Kyla Scanlon (economics communicator/educator) about TikTok, Reels, and social media in general. Her combination of digital publishing experience and economics knowledge makes her POV valuable.

What does the crystal ball say? 🔮

think that the scroll model will have to shift. I’m not sure what it’ll shift to, but I think that sort of motion is going to not be so enticing soon. But yes, I think it’ll definitely be much more interactive, and the user will be able to direct it much more than in the algorithm

Short-form video has eaten the world, which means another format will soon disrupt it.

On TikTok vs Reels:

What’s nice about Instagram as a platform is that you have stories and that you have posts and you have reels, versus TikTok does have stories, but when you scroll on TikTok, you don’t really scroll for a single person. Instagram — you’re able to curate more of a personality because there’s a profile page. It’s not as algorithmic. There’s more intentionality, I think, with the platform design, versus TikTok just wants to keep you scrolling and scrolling and scrolling. I think Instagram — it seems to be okay if you stray from the path awhile.

💡
It’s beginning to feel like two trends are converging in a way that will limit TikTok’s upside more than any ban.

The first is how the transition from school life to work life caps available media time, forcing an age out of sorts on The Trend Machine’s attention black hole effect.

The second is The Clock App’s Shop obsession:

TikTok really wants to make a lot of money, and they’re like, “If we sell commerce, if we sell goods to people, that’ll be the way that we make money.” Now, every other video for people is a face mask or a purse or clothes. You have users that are constantly being advertised to. I think more people view TikTok as an exhausting experience than one of connection, as it was in 2020.

I’m far from a meme expert, but this from Seb Joseph makes sense:

Whether it’s a visual gag, an absurd tagline or a quirky prop, marketers are designing for memefication – baking internet culture into the DNA of their campaigns to ensure they resonate in a world where memes and controversy are the currency of relevance.

“Marketers, if they weren’t already, are now thinking about their brand’s personality with the same nuance they’d use to craft a character in a novel,” said Brundage.

Brands with personalities aren’t just gimmicks – they’re closer to culture than the naysayers think.

Personality is how you stand out.

Also, mass culture is dead:

Subcultures aren’t niche anymore – they’re the culture.

COWEN: I don’t know. There are still democratic incentives in the system. I think people think in generational terms, maybe more than is warranted by the data. I’ve had this discussion with Peter Thiel. He talks about boomers and millennials and Generation X and Z. To me, it’s a continuum, and it’s the events at any point in time that matter a bit more, but I think people disagree on these questions. I don’t think it’s settled.

SCANLON: In terms of?

COWEN: How different different generations are, whether it’s a continuum or you have these fixed start and stop points.

SCANLON: Well, I think it’s in the cult-y thing that we were talking about earlier, where it’s like people want to belong to a certain generation. It’s easy to put yourself in a box that way.

COWEN: Yes, I’m never convinced that’s the right way to look at it.

SCANLON: I don’t think so. I think it creates more problems than answers.

Because generations are garbage

The core intuition is simply that you should be asking more questions.

-Tyler Cowen

Economics views homo sapiens as rational animals (probably my primary beef with the topic of my major).

But we might be better thought of as rationalization animals.

Meet Effort Justification.

Effort invested = increased perceived value of an outcome.

The IAB has put together a handy podcast ad example gallery.

Could be especially useful when talking to decision makers to show the difference between pre-roll and mid-roll, for example.

Personal consumption expenditure index drop day:

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for November increased 0.1 percent
Prices for goods increased less than 0.1 percent and prices for services increased 0.2 percent.
Food prices increased 0.2 percent and energy prices also increased 0.2 percent.
Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for November increased 2.4 percent

The September dip has been reversed.

2024 saw the streaming TV ad market start to look a lot more digital and less like traditional TV, mostly thanks to the Amazon effect.

A dream combo for advertisers:

Ad-tier subscribers are up

ad-supported streaming “grew dramatically.” In the U.S., the proportion of ad tier users grew from 5% to 17% for Netflix, from 10% to 30% for Disney+, and from 0% to 80% for Prime Video.

Costs are down

That influx of inventory helped bring streaming prices down in the most recent upfront, with buyers saying CPM (cost per thousand viewers reached) discounts ranged anywhere from the mid-teens to 45%, depending on where the pricing started.

What’s 2025 looking like?
Bundles and build outs

via Adweek

Gabe the Bass Player with yet another great post. (Music is a great place to look for marketing inspiration and lessons.)

So hook us in with a great song or two

This is demand creation and capture—where most brands focus their energy.

and keep us hanging around by being consistent.

This is retention—less sexy, way more valuable in the long run.

Everything is customer service. Or you won’t have customers to service.

Another Fed meeting, another fed rate cut

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent

1 dissenting vote &:

The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance.

Means we might be in a holding pattern before more rate cuts.

But we’ll see what tariffs have to say:

The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

“I have no ego in this.”

-a client

The best way to approach planning and performance analysis.

Prior decisions are sunk costs. Analyze, learn, advance.

Are you filtering through the fluff?

Or fluffing up the filter?

As for the promisor…it’s exciting to make the promise. You get to look cool and powerful and helpful. But then when no one is looking and there’s no excitement and maybe you don’t feel like it, you have to fulfill the promise. And it’s important to remember that while you don’t feel like fulfilling the promise, the promisee is somewhere excited that you are going to come through.

Marketing is a pyramid of promises.

Higher promise delivery rate = better reputation = more successful efforts

Will mobile game ads be wired in 2025?

So far AppLovin has the magic 8 ball saying Outlook Good 🎱

AppLovin’s ads are unskippable and pop up between game levels—a sweet spot for undivided attention. 

And for now, for players used to seeing ads for other apps, these retail ads feel like a welcome change, making them more memorable.

Competition is driving ad costs up and novelty will wear off, driving effectiveness down, but this space has had Next Big Thing status for years.