Inflation is up

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in February

via BLS

Earnings almost kept pace

Real average hourly earnings for all employees were unchanged from February to March, seasonally adjusted… This result stems from an increase of 0.3 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.4 percent in the Consumer Price Index

via BLS

An economic research group is

forecasting another 5% surge in home prices this year.

via Business Insider

Consumers feel like their money doesn’t stretch as far and their dreams are getting more expensive.

Or, as this tweet featured in DTC Daily puts it:

Finished reading: HOLE. by HIROKO. OYAMADA 📚

A recent episode of eMarketer’s Behind the Numbers podcast focused on retail media and this tidbit jumped out:

Yeah, I am super excited for Ulta Beauty’s Smart Vending Machines. They are piloting them currently in 10 cities across the U.S and essentially all people have to do, if you’re a rewards member, you just put in your phone or your email. If you’re not a rewards member, you can join right at the machine and you can claim a free travel size beauty product every week, which I think is really interesting.

So that’s a great incentive to keep coming back to get new things. They’re constantly refreshing the assortment, and again, you get a little travel size and you like it, you’re going to buy the full size. So it really is just its own little ecosystem which keeps people coming in, trying products. And for Ulta, it’s driving rewards member signups, and you’re getting additional customer info on their preferences and how often they’re coming in-store. So it’s really a win-win all around.

This is smart.

It’s a defensible moat. It’s not cheap to roll something like this out, which means all their competitors won’t have their own version live next week.

It’s unique. Any competitor that tries it now will be seen as a copycat. (I don’t know much about beauty, but if being “on trend” is part of the draw for customers, they’ll likely want to shop with the trendsetter and not the trend follower.)

It’s a retail media opportunity. There are a finite number of slots. If it takes off and they can prove the conversion from try to buy, companies will pay to put their product samples in the vending machine. It could even get to the point where certain spots command higher rates due to increased selection frequency from their position in the browsers eye line. (a.k.a. the grocery store model.)

It’s shareable. This is an experience people will talk about. I can see people posting videos of their trip and reviews of their trial products. To increase its potential as UGC machine, (and again, not a beauty expert) I would add a random/surprise slot and/or random double rewards giving loyalty members 2 free products. My thinking here is similar to the Pret A Manger loyalty program and slot machine psychology. (And my love for the mystery Airhead experience.)

It’s sticky loyalty. Any business with a high returning customer rate has pivoted from growth to retention in the post-free money era. A new free product each week gives people incentive to return and each return increases the likelihood of a purchase. Lock in likelihood also increases as loyalty members have more chances to become brand and product loyal.

All that to say, I like this idea. Well done, Ulta.

Now Liquid IV or LMNT needs to a do a smart gumball machine in gyms and retailers dishing out random flavors.

Audio always

I think in-store radio is a place where we’re seeing retailers start to play, I think because consumers are already primed to listen to things in the store, whether it be music or announcements, it’s kind of a low-stakes environment to start testing different ads and promotions.

via eMarketer

Followers are dead.

From the head of Instagram:

I understand why people focus so much on follower counts; they’re prominent and they’re easy to find. But if you actually want to get a sense for how relevant an account is, look at their how many likes they get per post and how many views per reel instead.

The Age of Attention is here. This will be the metric of 2024.

via Search Engine Land

Lucky vs. Repeatable

It’s so important to know the difference between the two when attempting to learn from someone. You want to try to emulate skills that are repeatable. Attempting to copy the parts of someone’s success that aren’t repeatable is equivalent to a 56-year-old dressing like a teenager and expecting to be cool.

via Collab Fund

A common practice in marketing is to look at competitors and inspirational/aspirational brands to benchmark—harvest ideas, uncover keywords, see what’s working. But it’s hard to figure out what we can repeat-like trying to reverse engineer virality.

We’re only seeing the finished product. We don’t know the process. This is the “overnight success” myth. The success is only overnight to those that weren’t doing all the work to make it happen.

you have 20 years to write your first album and you have six months to write your second one.

-Elvis Costello

The returns diminish with each additional mover.

The first movers do it, then everyone does it. When everyone does it, it doesn’t work as well.

via Marketing Against the Grain podcast (📼 / ~15:24)

Timing is luck. Virality is luck. Catching a person in the perfect moment for your message to resonate is luck.

Delivering value is repeatable. One core, consistent, coherent brand message is repeatable (that’s kind of the point). Being where your customers are is repeatable (and also kind of luck).

Coming up with the slogan “Red Bull gives you wings” is lucky. Sticking with it for decades is repeatable.

When benchmarking, spend less time focusing on what your gaps and more on theirs. What channels are underused? What tones of voice are avoided? What value adds or selling points are missing?

It’s easier to build a repeatable practice in a place with low competition than it is to get lucky in a place with high competition.

Or, trying zigging when others zag once in a while.

On today’s podcast episode, we discuss which digital behaviors Hispanic Americans over-index on, how they get their news, and what advertisers should consider when trying to reach and market to these folks.

Recommended listen.

And a good reminder that many shorthands we use to aggregate groups of people aren’t helpful for much outside the census (like generations, which are garbage).

via Behind the Numbers: The Daily

Finished reading: The Ballad of the Sad Café by Carson McCullers 📚

AI and the Complexity of Loss - blog.rinesi.com

Highly recommended for anyone interested in the more technical side of AI.

And a quote that extends beyond AI:

not aggressive enough — you use tame optimization algorithms in contexts where you could learn radically new processes through wildly more creative ones with nothing more at risk that a short-term drop in a dashboard only you and your manager care about.

Doing things “the way they’ve always been done” or “the way everyone else is doing them” usually means results a little less than before or others.

Take (acceptable) risks.

Apple Car is dead, meet Apple Robot?

With robotics, Apple could gain a bigger foothold in consumers’ homes and capitalize on advances in artificial intelligence. But it’s not yet clear what approach it might take. Though the robotic smart display is much further along than the mobile bot, it has been added and removed from the company’s product road map over the years, according to the people.

This makes more sense than the car project. And suggests confidence in their AI progress and plan. But feels theoretical at this point.

via Bloomberg

March’s job numbers are in:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 303,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, government, and construction.

via BLS

Audio. Always.

Podcasting deserves a larger role in media plans as opposed to “test and learn” experimental buys. 135 million Americans, 47% of persons 12+, are reached monthly.
…
Adopt agency media legend Arnie Semsky’s “5% solution” to podcasts: Allocate 5% of digital ad budgets to podcasts.

Why?

Among 18-34s, podcast reach is now as big as TV

&

Podcast 18-49 weekly reach is 80% of linear TV

&

Podcast female audience growth has been explosive

&

via Westwood One

retail media networks could be a driver for programmatic audio as the next essential advertising channel
…
A Million Ads global CRO Paul Kelly says audio enables retailers to deliver an audience-centric experience, focusing not just on who the audience is but also where they are in the life cycle of the purchase.

One of my rules for the year: audio always.

via Sounds Profitable